US manufacturing ISM index to increase slightly after four consecutive declines

The US manufacturing ISM index is expected to show that manufacturing activity quickened very modestly in February. Roughly one point increase is projected in the index from 52.9 to 53.8. 

Data on manufacturing trends released to date offers a mixed picture. The Empire and Philly Fed surveys were down slightly, however their components pointed to a slight improvement in conditions. Activity reportedly contracted in the Richmond Fed district; however the national Markit PMI posted its highest reading since October. 

"We believe that manufacturing activity improved modestly in March driven by better weather and to some extent by the reopening of West Coast ports. Our forecast, if realized, would be consistent with real GDP expanding at an annualized clip of about 2.5% in Q1", Said Societe Generale in a report on Wednesday