US leading economic index(r) fell modestly in July

The Conference Board's leading economic index fell 0.2% m/m in July, just a touch below the revised forecast (‑0.1%) and below consensus expectations (0.2%). The soft July reading was driven by a sharp decline in building permits. Permits had surged over the past three months as a pending tax change drove a flurry of multifamily activity in the Northeast region. In July, with the tax incentive having expired, multifamily permits plunged.

"Despite the decline this month, the y/y growth of the series remains elevated, indicating that the broad uptick in activity we have seen in recent months was sustained into Q3", says Barclays.