U.S. import prices rise strongly in November

Import prices in the U.S. rose in line with expectations in November. Prices rose strongly by 0.7 percent sequentially. Non-petroleum import prices were up 0.1 percent sequentially, emphasizing just how much of a boost energy was to headline import prices last month. Imported petroleum rose 7.2 percent in November.

It has been on a rising trend since August 2017, although it has been falling for much of the year before that. Meanwhile, food prices weighed on the headline, falling 1.7 percent sequentially and 0.4 percent year-on-year. Industrial supplies recorded a solid monthly rise of 3.6 percent and outside of these measures; import price measures were either flat or rose moderately.

On a year-on-year basis, total import prices rose 3.1 percent, as compared with October’s 2.3 percent. Excluding fuels, import prices rose 1.4 percent year-on-year. Following the deflationary trend of 2015 and 2016, import inflation has rebounded for most of this year.

For a few months in mid-2107, import inflation from industrialized and other trading partners was decelerating and was a drag on the trend for overall import inflation into the U.S. But, the recent figure appears to imply a return to stronger import price pressures and, along with the supportive move from the nominal effective exchange rate implies that this sector of prices would likely be supportive of consumer goods inflation in the months ahead, stated Barclays.

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