• The recent rebound in the 10-year Treasury yield still leaves it well below the peak reached at the start of 2014 in the aftermath of the so-called taper tantrum(1). This more modest recent rebound in yields has come at a time when short-term interest rate expectations have actually been trending lower in response to the softer incoming economic data (2). The rebound in long-term government bond yields has been a global development, with German Bund yields undergoing the sharpest turnaround (3).
  
  
• The increase in the broad real trade-weight dollar index has been relatively small, particularly when compared with the much bigger appreciations in the early 1980s and late 1990s (4). The dollar has risen by more against the euro, but even some of that appreciation has been reversed over the past month (5).
  
  
• Finally, the S&P 500 has continued to rise, stretching the trend that began six years ago (6).