U.S. economy likely to expand 2.3 pct in 2019, says Barclays Research

The United States is expected to expand 2.3 percent in 2019 after September data received this week were stronger than expected and suggest that the Q3 GDP growth could be revised higher, according to a recent report from Barclays Research. Further, data received for October point to solid growth momentum extending until year-end.

The November FOMC statement upgraded the FOMC’s assessment of the current activity environment to “solid” from “moderate” in September. This is the most upbeat the statement has been in its assessment of the trajectory of the recovery in at least a couple of years.

That the economy managed to grow at 3.0 percent q/q saar, in spite of the drag on industrial production, retail sales and equipment investment from the hurricane landfalls in August and September, will likely be interpreted by the FOMC as a sign that underlying momentum is pretty strong. Coupled with the rebound in employment in October and the fall in the unemployment rate, we think the evolution of the data brings the FOMC one step closer to cementing their view that an increase in the federal funds rate in December is likely to be appropriate, the report added.

Strong September data suggest Q3 GDP growth could be revised higher The September construction spending report was stronger than we expected, primarily driven by a solid increase in public sector spending. The September trade deficit widened in line with expectations and left the Q3 GDP tracking unchanged at 3.1 percent.

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