U.S. durable goods orders seem to have remained weak in September

U.S. durable goods orders are expected to have stayed weak in September. According to a Societe Generale research note, the durable goods orders are likely to have increased by 0.3 percent on sequential basis. But there is significant uncertainty regarding this projection due to orders of aircraft. In September, Boeing registered 55 new orders, which might have stimulated the value of the nondefense aircraft series in the durables data by around USD 1.85 billion, noted Societe Generale.

But out of the 55 orders, 36 were logged after 27 September and hence might not have been recorded in time for the durables report. If this happens, then the value of orders increased in t he durable goods release might have dropped by about USD 2 billion.

Anyways, if the transportation category rises, it is likely to be countered by declines in several other categories such as computers/electronics, fabricated metals and electric equipment. In all, durable goods orders excluding transportation might have dropped 0.3 percent, similar to the fall seen in August.

In the meantime, nondefense capital goods orders rose 0.9 percent in the month of August, marking the third straight month that the series rose. Even if the average monthly rise in the three months was weak at just 0.7 percent, the increases mark the first time this series has recorded three straight gains since mid-2009.

“That streak seems likely to come to an end in September, when we expect that non-defense capital goods orders ex-aircraft tumbled by 1.6%”, added Societe Generale.