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Total wholesale inventories rose 0.1% m/m in August, between forecast (0.2%) and consensus expectations (0.0%), while July data were revised lower to -0.3% m/m (initial: -0.1%). Wholesale inventories of durable goods rose 0.3% m/m in August, with gains in computers (1.9%) and machinery (0.5%) and a decline in automotive inventories (-0.3%). Nondurable goods inventories fell 0.2% m/m, with a third month of de-stocking at drug stores (-0.7% m/m) buffeted by an increase in grocery inventories (0.4% m/m).
The three-month annualized change of wholesale inventories stands at $12.6bn in August, down significantly from $41.3bn at the end of June. This recent slowing in inventory growth mirrors the sharp 1.9pp drag on GDP growth from overall private inventory investment that we currently expect in Q3.
"Slower-than-expected wholesale inventory growth in August and the downward revision to July data suggest less private inventory investment in Q3. As a result, our Q3 GDP tracking estimate fell three-tenths, to 1.2%", says Barclays.
