US June CPI data tonight

Yellen's second day of testimony was largely a rehash of what she said yesterday, but the message that 'a rate hike this year makes sense' kept USD as an outperformer overnight. 

Tonight we get June CPI where expectations are for a firm headline print of +0.3%m/m as seasonally adjusted gasoline prices rose by almost 4%. For the y/y figure, this will likely represent the first positive print after five straight months in negative territory. 

"For core prices, RBC estimates a +0.3%m/m increase (+1.9%y/y) as the ongoing decline in rental vacancies continues to put upward pressure on rents (RBC is 0.1pp above consensus for the core measure both m/m and y/y)," says RBC Capital Markets.