U.S. Inflation Cools in January as Gas Prices Fall, Core CPI Signals Sticky Price Pressures

U.S. consumer prices rose less than expected in January, offering modest relief to households as gasoline and rental costs eased. However, persistent increases in service-related expenses suggest the Federal Reserve may hold off on cutting interest rates until later in the year.

According to the Labor Department, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 0.2% in January, following a 0.3% rise in December and below economists’ forecasts of 0.3%. On an annual basis, inflation slowed to 2.4%, down from 2.7% in December. The moderation was largely due to falling gasoline prices, which dropped 3.2% month-over-month, and softer shelter costs, including rents and hotel stays, which rose 0.2%.

Food prices climbed 0.2% in January after jumping 0.7% in December. Grocery prices edged higher, though declines in beef, eggs, coffee, and fresh produce helped offset increases in cereal and baked goods. Despite monthly relief, food prices remain 2.9% higher than a year ago. Electricity prices dipped slightly in January but surged 6.3% year-over-year, partly reflecting rising energy demand from data centers supporting artificial intelligence infrastructure.

Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, increased 0.3% after a 0.2% gain in December. Service inflation remained firm, with airline fares soaring 6.5% and hospital services rising 0.9%. Personal care, recreation, and communication services also recorded notable increases. Meanwhile, used car prices fell 1.8%, helping keep overall core goods prices stable.

Year-over-year core inflation slowed to 2.5%, its lowest level since March 2021. Still, both CPI and the Federal Reserve’s preferred Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index remain above the Fed’s 2% target. Strong job growth and a 4.3% unemployment rate further reduce urgency for immediate rate cuts.

While financial markets are increasingly betting on a potential June rate cut, economists expect inflation to remain sticky in the first half of the year, influenced by import tariffs and the weaker U.S. dollar.