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US-China relations post Trump victory could pose major risks to global growth drivers

Donald Trump will be the next US president and Republicans have control of both the Senate and the House of Representatives. It was a 'clean sweep', which was totally unpredicted.

Trump has proposed economic and trade policies which, if enacted, would represent a sharp departure from the status quo. These include sharp cuts in income and business taxes, renegotiation of key trade agreements and potential tariffs on goods imported from China and Mexico, and the large-scale deportation of illegal immigrants.

Global economy has benefitted on many fronts in recent decades from China’s development. Efficient production of manufactured goods has helped keep inflation in the developed world contained. The greater availability of financial capital was seen as foreign exchange was recycled into developed world markets and for commodity demand.

Development in China has seen rise of its middle class, which has brought further benefits for the global economy via increased services trade and financial integration.

Trump has on many occasions referred to China as an economic rival, political adversary and military threat. In foreign trade, Trump has pledged to tear up or renegotiate the TPP agreement. To reduce the US trade deficit with the region, Trump would raise trade rhetoric, tariffs and import duties against China, Japan and low-cost ASEAN.

Trump victory is a major risk-off event for FX markets. Trump's surprise win offers substantial downside for equities given heightened uncertainty. The medium-term implications will hinge on actual scale and nature of policy implementation.

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