US April payrolls likely rebounding to 245,000

The March deceleration in US non-farm payrolls (NFP) to 126,000 was a blip and look for a rebound to 245,000 in April (Friday, 08:30 ET), higher than the consensus view of 230,000. 

This would be consistent with indicators suggesting labour-market activity has remained healthy, despite recent uneven activity growth. 

Q1 GDP grew only 0.2% q/q SAAR according to the first release. But the April ISM employment sub-index edged up 0.1ppt to 56.7, a third straight gain; and jobless claims have remained anchored below 300,000, a level historically consistent with full employment. 

ADP employment data was a disappointment at only 169,000 after a revised 175,000, but ADP imperfectly correlates with payrolls.