US ADP data points to mild slowdown in jobs growth: Capital Economics

Quotes from Capital Economics:

- The 212,000 rise in US ADP private employment in Feb, down from 250,000 in Jan, suggests that the risk to our forecast that official payrolls rose by 230,000 (data due on Friday) are tilted towards the downside. This survey isn't reliable enough, however, to lead us to revise our forecast. 

- Indeed, in recent months ADP's initial estimate has underestimated the increase in official payrolls. Admittedly, in months when the weather has been worse than normal, the ADP survey usually overestimates payrolls. This is because while workers only make it into the official payroll count if they were paid in the working week containing the 12th of the month, they are still recorded as employed by the ADP if weren't paid. 

- The harsh weather in recent weeks therefore means there is a chance that the official payrolls figure will be lower than the ADP reading. But since the weather wasn't too bad in the week containing the 12th Feb, we think this risk is small. We're sticking with our forecast that official payrolls rose by a healthy 230,000 last month.