UK's trade deficit roughly stable

The broad trends in the UK's balance of trade continue. The surplus on trade in services continues to rise whereas the deficit on trade in goods continues to widen, more than outweighing the surplus on services. There has been added volatility caused by the big swings in the oil price. 

The fall in the oil price now appears to have come to an end, which will lead to a small increase in the deficit in oil trade but this will be counterbalanced by the trade balance excluding oil and erratics which seems to have widened a little above the recent trend so should record a modest improvement. Taking those two factors together leads to expect only a minimal change in the overall trade deficit from £2817m to £2800m, says Societe Generale.