U.K. retail sales unlikely to have grown strongly in November

U.K. retail sales might have to struggle to make additional gains. According to a Societe Generale research report, given the rising significance of Black Friday promotions in the retail calendar, it is quite tempting to just project that retail sales in November would have been buoyant; however, it is doubtful that it would have been the case for many reasons.

Firstly, the data are seasonally adjusted, although with Black Friday having just been a significant even in the U.K. for three years, the seasonal pattern might still be difficult to model. Secondly, sales in October rose sharply by 2 percent in sequential terms. To make considerable gains in the following month would then be highly exceptional, stated Societe Generale.

For instance, the BRC retail survey for November noted that “compared to last year there was more of a shift of spending from earlier in the month, with sales down on last year in the weeks prior to the 25th November”. In all, sales are expected to have grown modestly by 0.3 percent in sequential terms in November and there is a small risk that they might have fallen, added Societe Generale.