UK retail sales on a firm uptrend

The British retail surveys compare sales with a year earlier so the picture can be distorted at this time of year because of the variable timing of Easter. 

Easter fell on 18-21 April last year but on 3-6 April this year. The March 2015 BRC retail survey ran from 1 March to 4 April so will have captured some of this year's Easter weekend but not all of it. 

Calculating growth in the volume of retail sales from the BRC survey data on the nominal value of retail sales and its shop priceindex generates a growth rate of 6.8% yoy in April, double the March BRC calculation. 

"This would imply mom growth in the official volume of retail sales of as much as 1.5% mom which we think is an excessive estimate as the relationship between the BRC and official data is not perfect. We predict growth of 0.8% mom", Said Societe Generale in a report on Monday.