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The British long-term bonds were trading modestly firmer on Monday as investors await first quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figure and FOMC meeting. The yield on the benchmark 10-year bonds, which moves inversely to its price, moved lower 0.25 pct to 1.596 pct and the yield on the 2-year bonds dipped 0.19 pct to 0.513 pct by 1130 GMT.
The United Kingdom Q1 GDP is expected to rise 0.4 pct, from 0.6 pct in the previous quarter, pushing bonds prices further up. Moreover, service sector will continue to support the United Kingdom growth, while construction and manufacturing will remain subdued.
After wave of disappointing economic data like weak retail sales, Industrial Production and high unemployment rate, this may increase worries that development in the U.K economy is easing off ahead of a referendum on membership of the European Union planned for June, pushing bond prices further up.
The United Kingdom Gilts have been closely following developments in oil markets because of their impact on inflation expectations, which are well below the Bank of England's target. Crude oil prices also lost ground Friday as traders took profit following the weekly surge after Crude oil prices jumped to 5-month high and report that Saudi Arabia could maintain its total crude output volume with the expansion of an oilfield, injecting fresh concerns about the global supply glut. The International benchmark Brent futures fell 0.53 pct to $44.83 and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) tumbled 0.96 pct to $43.31 by 1130 GMT.
The United States Federal Reserve policymakers meet on April 26-27 and markets largely expect that interest rates will be kept steady with a slim possibility of a surprise hike. Focus will be on the press statement and whether there is a shift across the Fed members to a more hawkish stance. Even subtle changes in the wording of its statement will tell us a lot about the probability of a June hike. Recent comments have been far more hawkish than the market is currently pricing in on rates.
We foresee that the BOE will also be wary of increasing interest rates until after a June referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union, one of several uncertainties they say are weighing on the prospects for the global economy. Meanwhile, The FTSE 100 fell 0.58 pct or 36.44 points to 6,272 by 1130 GMT.
