UK election: Average of polls still shows big victory margin for conservatives

In recent days, the British pound has suffered a major selloff on the shrinking margin of Tories in the upcoming UK election that would be held on June 8th. The selloff was largely triggered by a poll that shows the margin of victory for the Conservatives declined to just 6 percent after this month’s deadly bombing in Manchester that has taken the lives of 23 people. The selloff intensified after a YouGov model predicted a 20 seat loss for the Conservatives and 30 seats gain for the opposition Labor Party, resulting in a hung parliament.

However, one must consider that in a small time span it is very difficult to correctly predict the outcome as the snap election was called only in April. In addition to that, while the market is focusing on the recent polls, the average of polls that tends to be more accurate is still showing quite a large margin for the conservatives. Moreover, one must also take into account that the Conservatives had a sizable victory in the local municipal election.

The Financial Times’ compilation of average of polls showing still a 9 percent victory margin for the Conservatives, though it has shrunken by almost 50 percent since the beginning of May.