Tom Lee: Crypto's Big Breakout Awaits – Gold/Silver Peak to Ignite BTC & ETH Surge

Forecasting a major change in cryptocurrency markets in 2026, Fundstrat's Tom Lee projects that Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) will perform a sharp breakout once the present rally in precious metals like gold and silver peaks and cools. He believes investor FOMO driving money into metals during their record highs is to blame for the crypto's poor performance recently, but he anticipates this dynamic to turn as momentum in metals slows. Supporting elements should be expected Federal Reserve rate cuts, a weaker U.S. dollar, more liquidity from policy easing, reverse repo drawdowns, and fiscal expenditure, which ought to benefit risk asset,s including cryptocurrencies.

Lee alerts of a "painful fall" in early 2026, perhaps caused by geopolitical tensions and tariffs, which would cause BTC to drop to $60,000–$65,000 and ETH to $1,800–$2,000 in the first half of the year. He views this, nevertheless, as a momentary correction followed by a strong late-year rebound in which BTC rises to fresh highs near $115,000 at year-end (and maybe $250,000 if institutional adoption breaks conventional cycles) and ETH shoots to $4,500, with upside possibilities reaching $7,000–$9,000 earlier amid liquidity tailwinds.

The conclusion of crypto deleveraging cycles, widespread institutional adoption, and crypto's positioning to profit from more general economic resilience are all major forces driving this bullish turnaround. Lee argues that once the outperformance of precious metals subsides, capital flight back into BTC and ETH, aided by strengthening fundamentals, could cause them to outperform, making 2026 a turning year for crypto's next leg higher notwithstanding near-term volatility.