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Swedish inflation likely to have decelerated in October – Nordea Bank

The Swedish CPIF inflation is likely to have dropped in October. According to a Nordea Bank research report, the CPIF inflation is expected to have decelerated to 2 percent. This is above Riksbank’s view.

In its latest Monetary Policy Report, the Riksbank did not comment on the surprisingly low inflation reading for the month of September. But the data for that month was probably a disappointment for the central bank. The CPIF inflation excluding energy reading at 1.9 percent was 0.3 percentage point lower than the central bank’s forecast. Prices of several goods and services saw surprisingly low prices, whereas prices of the volatile foreign travel were higher than anticipated.

Prices of imported goods and services were low in September and below the normal level. Therefore, imported inflation is expected to temporarily rise again in October. In October, prices of energy dropped, but have been rising in recent weeks. If energy prices continue to remain at current levels, they will then stimulate the CPIF by around 0.2 percentage point in November.

“Our CPIF forecast for October, and also for November and December, is above the Riksbank’s forecast. If we are right, it may mitigate the recent strong depreciation of the Swedish krona”, stated Nordea Bank.

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