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Swedish headline inflation likely to have accelerated in November on higher energy prices

Swedish inflation gauged by CPIF is expected to have come above Riksbank’s view. According to a Nordea Bank research report, the CPIF inflation is likely to have come in at 1.9 percent, 0.2 percentage point above the central bank’s view. Domestic cost pressures are rising, while the krona is subdued, but inflation is unlikely to be enough for the Riksbank to take the foot off the accelerator, stated Nordea Bank.

Energy prices are an important factor of the November data. Energy prices surged in the month and are expected to have boosted the headline inflation by 0.2 percentage point. In recent weeks, prices have leveled out and might not impact inflation in December. Excluding the energy prices, the forecast for November is at 1.7 percent year-on-year.

Foreign travel continues to be a wild card. Prices for foreign travel dropped noticeably for seasonable reasons, but the uncertainty is significant. Some price hikes are also expected on miscellaneous goods and services, although the overall price changes are modest.

The Swedish central bank is expected to hike its rate in October 2018, with risks skewed towards an even later move, added Nordea Bank.

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