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Swedish headline inflation likely to have accelerated in November on higher energy prices

Swedish inflation gauged by CPIF is expected to have come above Riksbank’s view. According to a Nordea Bank research report, the CPIF inflation is likely to have come in at 1.9 percent, 0.2 percentage point above the central bank’s view. Domestic cost pressures are rising, while the krona is subdued, but inflation is unlikely to be enough for the Riksbank to take the foot off the accelerator, stated Nordea Bank.

Energy prices are an important factor of the November data. Energy prices surged in the month and are expected to have boosted the headline inflation by 0.2 percentage point. In recent weeks, prices have leveled out and might not impact inflation in December. Excluding the energy prices, the forecast for November is at 1.7 percent year-on-year.

Foreign travel continues to be a wild card. Prices for foreign travel dropped noticeably for seasonable reasons, but the uncertainty is significant. Some price hikes are also expected on miscellaneous goods and services, although the overall price changes are modest.

The Swedish central bank is expected to hike its rate in October 2018, with risks skewed towards an even later move, added Nordea Bank.

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December 11 09:00 UTC Released

ITRetail Sales NSA YY

Actual

-2.1 %

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Previous

3.4 %

December 11 09:00 UTC Released

ITRetail Sales SA MM

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-1 %

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0.9 %

December 11 11:30 UTC 126126m

TREndYear CPI Fcst/Cb Svy*

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10.68 %

December 11 15:00 UTC 336336m

USEmployment Trends*

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135.6 tln

December 11 15:00 UTC 336336m

USJOLTS Job Openings*

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6.093 Mln

December 11 21:00 UTC 696696m

KRExport Price Growth YY*

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8 %

December 11 21:00 UTC 696696m

KRImport Price Growth YY*

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6.8 %

December 11 23:50 UTC 866866m

JPCorp Goods Price MM*

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Previous

0.3 %

December 11 23:50 UTC 866866m

JPCorp Goods Price YY*

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Previous

3.4 %

December 12 00:30 UTC 906906m

AUNAB Business Conditions

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Previous

21 Bln TRY

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