China's September monetary and credit data is expected to show a similar pattern to the previous two months.
Societe Generale forecasts following developments in the Chinese economy:
- Firstly, M0 growth likely remained low thanks to FX intervention, while M2 growth might have strengthened on faster money creation owing to strong bank lending.
- Secondly, adding CNY445bn LGBs issued under the debt-to-bond swap programme, the actual increase in bank lending is likely to have well exceeded CNY1.2tn again.
- Third, corporate bond issuance should have continued its strong momentum.
Local government financial vehicles and (big) property developers regained access, while the entire credit market seems to be benefiting from the influx of funds that fled the equity market.
However, non-bank credit probably remained meagre on rising risk aversion and muted credit demand from the private sector, added Societe Generale.


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