That market corrections happen is certainly not a surprise, though that statement is likely cold comfort for investors in the midst of one. As with any correction, however, now is the time to persist with the investment plan created in calmer times and avoid any rash actions that may be inconsistent with your long-term investment goals. Here a few things to keep in mind:
- The S&P 500 is about 10% cheaper than it was one week ago. When the dust settles, bargain hunters may have an opportunity to pick up great companies at a discount.
- Fixed income investments - including corporate credit, U.S. Treasuries and GNMA - are providing their intended risk-control function.
- Investors have been whipsawed by negative market action twice in 2015 - driven by low oil prices and a high U.S. dollar early in the year followed by summertime concerns about Greece -before recovering fairly quickly.
- Central banks tend to protect their financial markets, as evidenced in June with the European Central Bank's bold implementation of quantitative easing. China has plenty of firepower - both monetary and fiscal - to solve its growth problem.
- The U.S. banking system is stronger than it has ever been due to macroprudential policies instituted by the Federal Reserve.
- China is not in the same predicament as Asian economies were in 1997, when the sudden withdrawal of "hot money" sent markets into a tailspin. China is a relative insular economy protected against such abrupt flows.
- The U.S. Fed wields tremendous influence and is due to meet September 16-17. Given the recent global tumult, fed funds futures markets have grown less convinced that Fed Chair Yellen will begin to hike rates in September.
- The U.S. consumer is prospering, with household wealth and retails sales at all-time highs, jobs near full employment and housing showing broad-based strength.
The current problem is rooted in a Chinese growth slowdown that appears to be more severe than its authoritarian leadership recognizes. Beijing's unexpected devaluation of the yuan a few weeks ago was accompanied by a sharp 8%-plus decrease in exports and a manufacturing PMI contraction to 47.1, sowing fear into markets and leading to contagion in Vietnam and Kazakhstan. News out of China pummeled commodity prices - oil in particular - which subsequently punished the economies and currencies of commodity export-oriented economies like Brazil, South Africa and Australia. Domestically this is being seen in decelerating corporate earnings, flat CPI inflation and a widening trade deficit.
"While times like these put investor fortitude to the test, trying to time markets is pure. Instead of losing patience and selling at what may be near the bottom of a downturn, investors are advised to stick with long-term investment plans created during less-fearful times", says Voya Global.


FxWirePro: Daily Commodity Tracker - 21st March, 2022 



