Stable Australian rates likely, but it has become a much closer call

On balance, it is predicted that Australia's current 2% cash rate will prove to be the low point of the current easing trend in Australia. But it is significantly less confident.

The autonomous hike in banks' mortgage rates, the downside surprise in Q3 inflation, and renewed monetary easing elsewhere, actual or foretold, are all factors that have raised the probability of further easing, but not above 50%. 

"The chance of a cut at around one-in-three, compared to the discounted probability in the OIS market which stands at about 50% at the time of writing. The key argument against further rate cuts is the risk of further stoking the domestic housing market, which despite a marginal loss of momentum remains red hot, and that raises concerns for financial stability", says Societe Generale.