Speculative financial investors are getting more cautious on Brent

Brent is currently priced at $63.3 per barrel, i.e. more at the bottom end of the corridor in which it has been trading since mid-April.

The possibility of agreement being reached in the debt dispute with Greece has not been able to give oil prices the same impetus as equity markets, so far at least.

It would appear that speculative investors are exercising greater caution now after their considerable optimism turned out to be premature in early May. Until 16 June at least they did their best to further reduce their net long positions on the ICE. Net long contracts are now a full 33% lower than the record high they achieved at the beginning of May, though they still find themselves at a comparatively high level.

The detailed trade figures reported this morning from China are also unlikely to have triggered the optimism, and are likely to weigh above all on the prices on the product markets. This is because the record-high Chinese crude oil processing figure for May, which was already known, was not so much due to high domestic demand - instead, the high level of production in May was used once again for robust exports: at around 360,000 tons, China's net diesel exports were almost as high as in April and are likely to pressure margins on the diesel market.

The fact that the deadline for negotiating a final nuclear agreement with Iran will expire on 30 June is also forcing cautious behaviour on the oil market. Although it is said that there are still considerable hurdles to be overcome, which could lead to further delays, the possibility of an agreement being reached cannot be ruled out - in which case there is the "threat" of additional oil from Iran flooding onto the already oversupplied market.