South Korea Q1 GDP likely to have been subdued

South Korea will release Q1-2015 GDP data on 23 April. Weak growth momentum is expected to have continued in Q1: domestic consumption was likely weak despite lower oil prices. 

Retail consumption increased by a mere 1.1% in the first two months of 2015. Exports are expected to have declined 2.8% on low oil prices and sustained weakness in the euro area and Japan, even though exports to the US showed some growth. 

Facilities investment has remained on a stable uptrend since 2014, although construction investment is expected to have remained low in Q1 despite signs of recovery in the real estate market.

"We expect GDP growth of 0.8% q/q and 2.6% y/y, lower than market consensus. The q/q pick-up was likely due to the base effect, as Q4-2014 had the slowest growth of 2014 (0.3% q/q, 2.7% y/y)", says Standard Chartered.