Singaporean final Q3 2018 GDP growth estimate likely to have been downwardly revised

Singaporean third quarter GDP data is set to be released this week. According to a DBS Bank research report, the headline growth figure is likely to have come in at 2.5 percent year-on-year and 4.4 percent on a quarterly basis. The downward revisions come from a weaker than expected performance in the manufacturing sector although some upward revision in the construction and services sector might help counter the fall.

Besides the high base impact which weighed down on the year-on-year figures, the better sequential growth figure imply some degree of resilience on the economy. However, there are worries about the risk aversion and higher interest rates taking a toll on the financial markets and property easing measures weighing down on the business service sector.

“Electronics cycle has peaked, and demand is weakening. Trade war could also add salt to wound in the coming quarters. In short, external headwinds has picked up, and there are increasingly more downside risks to growth”, added DBS Bank.