Singapore – Retail sales growth to accelerate on base effects

Singapore will release April retail sales on 15 June. A rise of 7.9% y/y is expected, from 2.1% the previous month. This is inflated by a favourable base effect, as retail sales fell sharply in April 2014 before rebounding again.Upside to domestic household consumption appears minimal. 

The favourable base effect boosted motor vehicle sales in particular; this should moderate in the coming months, even as motor vehicle retail sales are likely to remain supportive of overall growth. Other categories (supermarkets, recreational goods) fared less well. 

"We forecast retail sales excluding motor vehicles to have risen 3.7% y/y, rebounding from a 3.2% contraction in March", says Standard Chartered.