Singapore feels the lift from pre-Christmas stocking

Singapore's non-oil domestic exports expanded 0.3% y/y in September, markedly stronger than expectations (Barclays: -3.4%; consensus: -3.9%). On a m/m sa basis, exports grew 2.8%, partly reversing the 4.6% contraction in August (Jul: 2.5%). 

The upside surprise was boosted by outperformance in electronics, where exports rose by 5.7% y/y (Aug: -2.7%), while the drag from non-electronics eased (Sep: -1.9% y/y; Aug: -10.7%). 

"Although the pickup in shipments to developed markets, which was anticipated, was relatively muted, notable improvements across the regional supply chain (Japan, Korea and Taiwan) are pointing to promising signs that intra-industry trade is gradually returning", says Barclays. 

Moreover, non-oil retained imports were firm, rising by 19.6% y/y. These are likely to set the stage for a later pickup in consumer demand from developed markets, namely US and Europe in the coming months as we are approach the pre-festive stocking period.