Singapore NODX likely to register modest increase in November on weaker SGD, improved U.S. consumption

Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports are expected to have registered a modest increase during the month of November, following weakness in the SGD along with improvement in the United States consumption.

The headline NODX number is likely to register a modest increase of 1.0 percent y/y. It may not look fantastic but compared to the 12 percent drop in the previous month, it’s quite a quantum leap. The low base effects in the same period last year, as well as the weaker SGD in November, are partially contributing to the increase.

Beyond that, improvement in US consumption, as well as cyclical bottoming out in China could provide some modest lift to exports. Though signs of a full turnaround in NODX are still tentative at present, the worst could well be behind, DBS reported.

Any downside in the near future is more industry specific or seasonal in nature. The biomedical cluster will remain volatile given the nature of the business. Electronics exports may continue to underperform because of offshoring of low value added (VA) activities.

Also, market sentiments are still heading south, judging from the consensus forecast of a 3.0% decline for the same figure above. Well, as the saying goes, only time will tell. Meanwhile, there are still pockets of risk in the horizon pertaining to key markets such as China, US and the Eurozone.