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The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is expected to maintain its target range for the 3-month Libor at -1.25 percent to -0.25 percent and the interest rate on demand deposits at -0.75 percent until the end of 2019, according to the latest research report from Commerzbank.
Fears of a strengthening of the Swiss franc will prevent the SB from raising interest rates before the European Central Bank (ECB) begins to normalise monetary policy and the Swiss franc comes under devaluation pressure.
In fact, the SNB has not intervened in the FX market since autumn 2017, after the Swiss franc depreciated significantly against the euro in summer 2017 (see Chart 8). The prospect of the deepening of monetary union proposed by Emmanuel Macron gave the euro new strength. At the same time, demand for the Swiss franc as a safe haven declined due to lower political risks.
"In view of the continuing uncertainty regarding future political developments in the euro zone and US trade policy, we assume that EUR/CHF will remain at levels in the region of 1.14 for the time being. The SNB is likely to prevent the EUR/CHF exchange rate from falling below 1.14 on a sustained basis," the report commented.
