Russian retail sales likely to have grown further in November

The Russian real retail sales data, along with real wages and industrial output for the month of November is set to be released next week. In 2017, Russian retail sales have risen higher as the economy has recovered from a deep recession that occurred in the 2015-2016 period.

During its peak in early 2015, Russian consumer price inflation was up almost 17 percent year-on-year, eroding consumer purchasing power and leading to a rise in interest rates. Since then, inflation has eased to 2.7 percent versus a year ago.

The Russian economy has evidently rebounded from its recent trough, and the upcoming data would possibly show some continued modest progress, noted Wells Fargo in a research report. Retail sales had risen 3 percent in October on a year-on-year basis. According to consensus expectations, retail sales are expected to have risen 3.3 percent in November. However, the headwinds on the Russian economy are multi-faceted and tough to address quickly.

“As a result, although we expect some continued near-term improvement, a return to the run-rate of the early years of the past decade does not look likely”, added Wells Fargo.

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