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Russian bonds slump on tracking weak oil prices

The Russian 10-year bonds slumped on Monday, following weak cues emerging from crude oil prices, pushing the yield of 10-year bonds higher 4 bps. The Brent crude oil, a global benchmark for Russia's main export, was plunged after Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and Russia failed to strike a deal in Doha to freeze crude output. The benchmark 10-year bonds yield, which is inversely proportional to the price of bonds, rose 0.43 pct to 9.310 pct and 3-year bonds yield dipped 0.53 pct to 9.57 pct at 1055 GMT.

The negotiations between Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and Russia failed to reach an agreement in the Doha round of talks on Sunday to strike a deal on oil output freeze. On the other hand, Saudi Arabia said that they were ready to freeze the current level of crude oil production on condition that all other producing countries follow the same. The International benchmark Brent futures fell 3.43 pct to $41.62 and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) tumbled 2.68 pct to $39.28 by 1055 GMT.

On the other hand, Russia’s GDP dynamics (seasonally adjusted) was flat in February 2016, as compared to 0.1% contraction in January, according to the monthly monitoring published by the Economic Development Ministry.

In addition, the Bank of Russia’s unexpectedly hawkish turn at its last rate meeting and the slump in oil prices are casting a shadow on the Russia long-term debt. Morgan Stanley in its report said that if oil prices continue to weaken, the rate on 10-year notes will climb by 50 basis points.

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