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Renewed rise in investments likely to drive Norwegian economic growth in 2018 - Commerzbank

The Norwegian economic growth outlook is robust. The economic growth outlook of Norway is underpinned by low interest rates, improved competitiveness and expansionary fiscal policy, noted Commerzbank in a research report. The renewed rise in investments is likely to replace fiscal policy as the growth driver in 2018.

Given that the Norges Bank forecasts economic growth of 1.1 percent for next year, it is expected to continue with its cautious economic outlook, which it is using to justify its low interest rate levels since the collapse of the oil price in 2014/2015, stated Commerzbank. Consistent with that it highlighted again that for some time a high degree of monetary policy stimulus was still appropriate even if it admitted during its September meeting that the key interest rate might rise earlier that originally assumed after several upside corrections it its growth projections.

Norges Bank governor Oystein Olsen stated that the rate path only implies a first rate step in the summer of 2019; however, the central bank now sees little chance of key rates starting to rise as early as next year, said Commerzbank.

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