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The Reserve Bank of Australia is scheduled to release its monetary policy decision on Tuesday at 04:30 GMT and it is widely expected to leave its interest rate unchanged at 1.50 percent. However, we foresee that there is a higher possibility that the central bank will lower its key policy rate in 2016 as further easing seems warranted due to continued subdued consumer inflation.
Moreover, third quarter consumer inflation data will be key in regards to future monetary policy expectations and it is not released until October and therefore although the RBA will likely leave policy unchanged at their September meeting. On the other hand, it is worth noting that if third quarter CPI disappoints, official cash rate cut is unavoidable.
According to a recent Reuters poll, All 33 economists expected a steady outcome at Tuesday’s policy meeting. Apart from this, the central bank will remain focus on the second quarter if gross domestic product (GDP) growth, which is scheduled to be released on September 7 at 01:30 GMT.
Our preliminary estimate for Q2 GDP is for a rise of 0.3 percent q/q. This result follows a strong 1.1 percent q/q rise in Q1 and would see annual growth tick up to 3.2 percent from 3.1 percent in Q1, broadly matching the RBA’s rounded forecast of 3.25 percent, said ANZ in a research note.
Although the quarterly growth rate is a step down from Q1, this largely reflects volatility in resources exports, rather than any trend slowdown in the broader economy. Taken together, growth in the first two-quarters looks to have been a solid 2.8 percent annualised. Moreover, the unemployment rate fell again to 5.7 percent in July, while further eroding the chances of the RBA cutting interest rates over the near-term, they added.
Lastly, we foresee that the CB is likely to ease further in November after it gets another read on inflation in late October. The RBA second last monetary policy meeting for 2016 is scheduled for November 2. After the policy decision, the market will primarily focus on the comments made by the Governor for any signals about future policy.
