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RBA likely to hold in April only to go in May

The RBA meets on 07 April and in a finely balanced decision it will likely leave rates on hold. 

"A May cut will allow the RBA a better opportunity to assess broader conditions as well as the opportunity to receive additional data on inflation and unemployment that should support the case for further easing", says Bank of America Merrill Lynch. 

May's meeting will also be followed by the Statement on Monetary Policy which gives the RBA the opportunity to more fully explain its reasoning and outlook.
Although if the RBA assesses the recent decline in iron ore prices and the stabilisation of the A$ as threatening to have a material negative impact on the outlook already, then holding off for one month is likely unnecessary.

"Irrespective of either an April or May cut, we expect the RBA to leave rates on hold subsequent to that move. We do not think cutting rates below 2%, as the market is pricing, is at this stage necessary or wise given the dynamics in the economy and property market", added BofA Merrill.

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