Q1 GDP data to assess the Norges’ next policy move

Norway's Q1 GDP data (Wednesday) will likely act as a catalyst in determining the Norges Bank's next policy move. Lower oil prices are expected to have weighed on activity, with the economy expected to have grown 0.3% q/q in Q1 15 from 0.9% q/q in Q4 14. 
Besides the sharp decline in oil prices during H2 14, mainland GDP, which excludes petroleum production and shipping, is also expected to have moderated, with the Norges Bank forecasting a 0.35% q/q growth for mainland Norway, in line with consensus expectations (0.30% q/q) and the Regional network indicators for growth (0.31% q/q). 
The stabilization in oil prices, in addition to increased concerns about financial stability, have kept the Norges Bank cautious about easing policy further. Yet the probability of policy easing later this year remains significant, particularly if Q1 data disappoint Norges Bank projections in the coming week. 
With less than a full cut priced for June, value in initiating long EURNOK positions is seen if growth disappoints in anticipation of further easing by the Norges Bank in June, says Barclays.