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Positive wage growth will be supportive for sterling as referendum closes in

Pound has been declining steadily after a failed attempt to break above 1.47 handle against Dollar in early June and as the referendum closes in and recent polls suggest that exit camp is securing a lead, the pound is likely to remain weak over the next eight days.

Nevertheless, today’s employment report to be released at 8:30 GMT may provide something to chew for the bulls and that is wage growth.

Below is the preview of the report:

  • As of now unemployment rate in the UK stands at 5.1 percent and median estimate suggests it is likely to remain same.
  • So, the major focus will be on earnings growth since BOE policymakers in several instances announced they will be looking at wage growth component and the current rate is not sufficient to generate targeted inflation.
  • Moreover, a positive wage growth should help to downsize the fear gripping Pound. It will be a nice evidence that companies are ready to increase wages even in the face of a potential exit from the union.
  • Wage growth has been declining since October last year when it reached a peak of 2.8 percent growth excluding bonus. Wage growth was 2.1 percent in March excluding bonus and 2 percent including it.
  • Today earnings growth is expected to be 1.7 percent including bonus and 2.1 percent excluding it.

It may turn out to be a non-event but if it doesn’t reaction will be vital to watch. The pound is currently trading at 1.416 against Dollar.

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