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Portugal is still expected to moderately recover from the lows of its economy in the coming quarters, despite the poor economic performance the country has shown in the recent past. The growth forecast for 2016-17, has remained unchanged at 1.4 pct and 1.6 pct respectively, compared to three months ago.
According to National Accounts data, GDP grew 0.1 pct q/q in 1Q16, below what was foreseen which means that the weakness of the recovery has continued from mid 2015 to early 2016. The available data suggests that this weak growth continues to be supported by private consumption, while investment has fallen again, weighed down by uncertainty and, above all, by the fall in exports.
Despite the decline in March, retail sales bounced back in January and February, to somewhat more than 4 pct above the Q4 2015 average (when they fell -2 pct q/q), which means rates above even those observed at the beginning of 2015 when private consumption was moving along at a rate of almost 1 pct on quarter.
Finally, trade balance data to February shows intensification in the fall in exports at a somewhat higher rate than that experienced by imports. Thus, the positive contribution (quarterly) of net exports to growth could have been reduced somewhat.
Low oil prices along with a moderation in private consumption will be the main factors responsible for the low inflation that is expected, on average 0.5 pct for 2016, slightly higher than in the Euro zone due to increased indirect taxes, and it will increase to 1.3 pct in 2017, reports said.
