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Polish private consumption likely to grow at slower rate in 2019

The Polish economic growth sustained dynamics above the 5 percent that have been seen since the starting of the year. Private consumption mainly drove the growth, as tight labor market conditions permitted households to enjoy high levels of spending. Investment growth has rebounded, mainly because of projects realized in the public sector financed with the support of EU funds.

Softening market sentiment implies that domestic demand is expected to lose some steam next year. According to an Erste Group Research report, private consumption is likely to grow at a slower rate next year compared to 2018. First, employment growth has slowed lately. Secondly, the jobless rate is not falling any further.

Finally, wage growth dynamics has stabilized. All these factors imply easing of consumption growth rather than acceleration. Investment growth is boosted by EU funds and more payments are still because of the coming years.

“Despite strong economic momentum, the share of investment to GDP dropped, dampening prospects for GDP growth in the future”, added Erste Group Research.

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