Polish industrial production output likely to have contracted in April, retail sales to have shrunk

Polish industrial production data for the month of April is set to release later this week. According to an Erste Group Research report, the industrial production output is likely to have contracted 5.7 percent year-on-year in the month owing to lockdown measure. Nevertheless, a deeper dive could not be ruled out. Economic activity is expected to bottom out in April, as measures start to be lifted gradually in May.

Meanwhile, the retail sales data is also due to release this week. Shopping centers stayed closed throughout the entire month. Along with plummeting sentiment and likely falling incomes, households drastically limited the level of spending.

“We expect retail sales to contract by -16.3 percent y/y (down from -7.1 percent y/y in April). We expect retail sales to begin improving gradually from May onwards, as shops and shopping malls start to open up”, added Erste Group Research.