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Polish Zloty Outlook (1-3 Months) – Changes in political landscape

Several implications have been seen in Poland after Andrzej Duda of the Law and Justice Party won the election. 

  • First, this may prove to be a boon for the Law and Justice Party as it looks to gain more seats in parliamentary elections in October. 

  • Second, this outcome may increase the budget deficit. During his campaign, Duda promised policies such as increasing tax breaks for lower income groups and lowering the retirement age. These proposals will reverse Civic Platform's tighter fiscal policy and Poland's improving budget deficit. According to FM Szczurek, these policies may cost PLN 400bn over the next 5 years. Since 2010, the  government budget deficit has improved from -7.6% to - 3.2% in 2014. 

  • Thirdly, successful euro adoption will now have to overcome a higher hurdle. Not only 53% of the population opposes switching to the euro, Andrzej Duda is anti-euro. There is significant room for convergence of Poland's local 5y5y swap rate to that of EU is found, if Poland were to adopt the euro, says RBC Capital Markets. Lastly, Duda has proposed an additional tax on banks. According to Reuters, this may cost banks 6bn zlotys per year or almost 40% of their annual profits.

  • "On the monetary policy front, NBP is likely to cut a maximum of 50bps in the short-term. This will largely be a factor of the EUR/PLN level and the widening of the 5y5y spread between Poland and EU local swap rates. As the spread widens, the zloty is likely to strengthen and may thereby increase deflationary pressures", according to RBC Capital Markets.

 

 

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