Poland's CPI deflation is expected to persist at -0.4% y/y in November, an improvement over the -0.7% y/y reading last month. With respect to the NBP rate decision this week, since the old MPC remains intact for one more MPC meeting, it is expected to keep the main policy rate unchanged at 1.5% at its December meeting. 

The new government will be able to appoint eight out of 10 MPC members in January and February 2016 and the governor's term ends in June 2016. Once these changes have taken place, the NBP is likely to lower rates by 50bp in Q1 16 and an additional 25bp in Q2. The market is only pricing 30-35bp easing from NBP 2016. 

Against this backdrop PLN is likely to behave like a higher-beta EUR given economic and policy divergences of euro area-linked economies with the US, and looser fiscal and monetary policy.