Poland's MPC likely to change important personnel next year

President Duda's top economic adviser suggested already that there is scope to cut Poland's benchmark interest rate from 1.5 percent, arguing that borrowing costs are higher than in the euro area. 

The risk of fiscal loosening is limited. The implementation of the new taxes,retailers' tax and bank levy could impact food and banking services prices slightly. The scenario of rates remaining stable for longer is still quite possible.

"The investors are expected to start to price in more aggressive easing next year. However, rate cuts are not certain for next year. In our opinion, Poland should exit deflation in Q1 2016. We think the implementation of some of the new government's measures could stimulate inflation", says Societe Generale. 

A new monetary policy council will take over the reins next year, with eight new members starting in March 2016 and a new NBP governor beginning in July 2016. The views of the new MPC members could vary from those of the current members.