Poland growth stalls

In Poland, lacklustre Q2 GDP growth has been followed by disappointing IP and retail sales in July, decelerating to 3.9% and 2.9% y/y, respectively, seasonally adjusted. This implies that GDP growth can continue around 3% or higher, but will not accelerate (as the government had predicted) and may soften. 

Along with continued deflation, this puts Poland on a possible path that could eventually lead to further cuts to its 1.5% policy rate. 

"However, with eight out of nine MPC members scheduled to be replaced in January-February 2016 and the governor up for renewal in mid-2016, any possible rate adjustments will likely wait until the new MPC takes over", says Barclays.