Plunging pump prices probably left US retail sales marginally in the red in September

A tug of war between a price-led drop in gasoline purchases and stepped-up consumer outlays on other goods and restaurant meals probably left retail and food services sales 0.1% lower in September, after a modest 0.2% uptick in August and a 0.7% gain in July. Retail gasoline prices tumbled by 9.7% to a seven-month low of $2.46 per gallon during the reference period. After accounting for product supplied and seasonal adjustments, service-station receipts likely contracted by 6.3%, or by $2.35 billion, knocking one-half percentage point off the headline figure last month.

However. Reflecting the strongest unit vehicle purchases in over a decade, auto-dealership revenues probably rose by 0.9%, boosting the cumulative increase since June to 2.9%. Excluding spending on autos, building materials (0.2%) and gasoline, so-called retail control outlays are forecast to have climbed 0.4% higher in September, extending the string of uninterrupted advances to seven months. Increased purchases of electronics, furniture and online items likely will contribute meaningfully to that gain.

"Our retail control projection, if realized, would place the key input to the Bureau of Economic Analysis' goods-spending calculation over the July-September span 6.1% annualized above its Q2 average - the strongest performance since the spring of 2014",says Societe Generale.