The Philippine's remittances recovery stalled in April, following a strong rebound in March. While remittances - which are reported in USD - continue to be weighed by the near 20% decline in EURUSD over the past year, slowing growth in April is observed from the US as well, says Barclays.
The bulk of remittances weakness is due to currency translation effects, added Barclays. Indeed, the Philippine Overseas Employment Administration continues to report strong growth in job orders, suggesting no fall in demand for overseas workers. As such, while the weak EUR could weigh further on remittances growth, we expect this to prove transitory.
The weakness in remittance flows from Europe (alongside other regions with weaker currencies) could pose some headwinds for private consumption growth this year, though BSP is expected to look through the transitory nature of this, given broadly strong domestic demand. A bigger consideration for the central bank is likely to be inflation; while a prolonged period of inflation below target could raise risks of a one-off cut, according to Barclays.


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