Philippines expects modest improvement in April export growth

The Philippines will release April export data on 10 June. Standard Chartered expects exports to have increased 6% y/y, following 2.1% growth in March on a favourable base effect. Annalysts assume April exports fell compared with March, however. Asian export growth remains weak, as seen in the weak prints from South Korea and Taiwan. Philippines' export growth to the US has been improving. However, that to other Asian markets is still sluggish, which could drag down full-year export growth.

Export growth is expected to improve gradually in 2015, although it may remain muted. Sluggish external demand could weigh on GDP growth; Stnadard Chartered forecasts GDP growth of 6% for 2015 (2014: 6.1%), but acknowledge the downside risks to the forecast.