PHP July seasonality too good to be true?

The historical chances of a PHP rally in July look good. Over the past 10 years, the PHP has rallied 8 out of 10 times in July with an average appreciation of 1.2%. 

The key is overseas remittance inflows related to school fees payments. The statistical effect appears even greater than the average 1.0%. December appreciation related to seasonal remittance inflows for the Christmas holiday that have resulted in PHP appreciation in 7 out of the last 10 years. 

This seasonal trend may help explain the recent PHP outperformance and pullback below 45.00 and the collapse in 1M NDF points that peaked at 29ppt on 15 June and collapsed to 8.5ppt presently. Indeed, forward points also have a seasonal tendency to fall in July and even turn negative.