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Oil price will probably defend its recent gains in the week ahead

The price of Brent oil climbed mid-week to an eight-week high, at around 37 USD per a barrel. For six weeks, US production has been steadily declining and is now at the level of November 2014, which is likely supporting the gains.

The market has recently been focusing more on longer-term developments than current oversupply and rising inventories. US Department of Energy reported on Wednesday that US crude oil stocks had risen sharply by more than 10 million barrels to a new record level of 518 million barrels last week. Oil prices rose to eight-week highs nevertheless.

Oil market sentiment is shifting and is likely to "ignore" the fact that US production will be revised upwards in the EIA monthly report for January. Oil prices will therefore probably hold at their current level, especially as the EIA should confirm its demand forecast after the significant downward revision in February, notes Commerzbank in a report.

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