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Oil in global economy series: Vulnerabilities moving down stream in U.S.

While lower oil price battered producers, drillers all around globe and US, more downstream companies such as refiners enjoyed a boom. Refiners saw their margins improve, with higher demand for end products and lower input price. Last year, saw spread, difference between 1 liter/barrel gasoline to Crude tough record high levels in some parts of US.

One of the key reasons behind super performance of US refiners has been West Texas Intermediate (WTI), which for most parts of 2015, traded at a discount Brent. So, U.S. refiners were getting raw materials at additional discount price than the world.

But after, US lawmakers repealed a 40 year ban on exports of U.S. crude, WTI is more or less falling in line with Brent. This week, saw the Brent-WTI spread to drop below zero. This spread is vital not only for refiners but producers too. 2015’s last quarter results of U.S. refiners saw EPS drop and if the spread remains around zero pain is likely to increase in coming quarters.

Key stocks to watch are – Valero, Tesoro, Western Refining and Alon USA Energy.

WTI is currently trading at $39/barrel, at 60 cents per barrel discount to Brent.                   

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